UNSW says bushfire smoke can cut solar farm output by up to 70%

UNSW Sydney researchers say smoke from major bushfires can sharply reduce solar power generation, including at sites more than 150 kilometres from fire hotspots. The study points to better smoke forecasting, cleaning and panel management as ways solar farm operators can reduce losses and protect equipment.

Why it matters: - Bushfire smoke can cause major drops in solar electricity generation far beyond the fire zone. - The findings could help solar farm operators protect output, reduce equipment stress and plan sites in bushfire-prone regions more carefully. - The research also matters for other regions facing recurring wildfire smoke, including California, southern Europe and parts of South America.

What happened: - UNSW Sydney researchers studied the impact of two major Australian bushfire events: the 2019-2020 Black Summer fires and Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday fires. - The team used historical weather and satellite data to model how smoke and airborne particles affected solar generation and panel temperatures across south-eastern Australia. - The findings were published in the journal Solar Energy. - Dr Shukla Poddar was the corresponding author, alongside Professor Bram Hoex and Associate Professor Merlinde Kay from UNSW’s School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering.

The details: - During the Black Summer bushfires, the researchers estimated electricity generation fell by as much as 70% at locations within about 50 kilometres of fire hotspots for several consecutive days. - In regions more than 150 kilometres from hotspots, the study estimated losses of up to 30%. - During the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, the researchers estimated lower reductions of around 18% near fire hotspots and up to 10% in more distant regions. - The figures are modelled estimates, not measurements from individual solar farms. - The researchers could not separate smoke-related losses from other factors, including cases where electricity generation was deliberately limited because the grid did not need all available power. - Smoke and airborne particles reduce the sunlight reaching solar panels, which lowers electricity output. - Smoke particles can also settle on panels, creating uneven deposits that may form localised hot spots. - Those hot spots can damage cells over time and reduce panel performance. - The study did not directly model this localised damage, so further work is needed to measure how often it occurs and how much generation it costs.

Between the lines: - The research shifts attention from fire damage alone to smoke transport, which can affect solar farms well outside immediate burn areas. - Dr Poddar said operators should consider smoke trajectory modelling, since wind can move smoke inland and affect sites that are not close to active fires. - The study suggests bushfire planning for solar farms should combine fire history, wind patterns and smoke pathways instead of relying only on local fire proximity. - The work also implies that routine weather-style forecasting for smoke could become a practical operations tool for the solar industry.

What’s next: - The researchers recommend better smoke forecasting tied to bushfire information and wind patterns so operators can predict which solar farms are likely to be affected. - Advance warning could help operators plan inspections, schedule cleaning and adjust panel positions before smoke arrives. - The study recommends more frequent cleaning when smoke is likely to affect a site, along with regular thermal inspections to spot unusually hot panels or electrical components. - The paper also calls for better remote monitoring and electrical fault detection so operators can isolate affected parts of a system faster. - Managing grass and shrubs under panels, maintaining firebreaks and preparing bushfire management plans could help reduce the risk of fires starting or spreading within solar farms. - Operators of tracking systems could temporarily adjust panel angles during particularly hot periods to reduce heat exposure and possibly help loose particles move off surfaces, although that would trade off some electricity production. - Developers could use bushfire history, prevailing wind directions and likely smoke pathways when selecting sites for new solar farms. - Dr Poddar said the same framework could be applied in other bushfire-prone regions worldwide, including California, southern Europe and parts of South America.