EIA sees higher heating oil costs this winter on Delmarva

Federal energy forecasts point to a tougher winter for Delmarva households that heat with oil, while propane costs are expected to stay near last year’s levels. PepUp is urging customers in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia to review price-protection and conversion options before colder weather sets in.

Why it matters: - Homes on the Delmarva Peninsula that rely on heating oil could face materially higher winter bills. - The federal forecast suggests propane customers should see far less pressure, creating a wider cost gap between fuel types. - Cold-weather swings tied to El Niño could push bills even higher than the base forecast.

What happened: - The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook and 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook on Oct. 6. - The outlook projects household spending on heating oil will rise at least 21%. - Current and forecast low fuel supply is a major driver of the heating oil increase. - The EIA expects electricity bills for regional homes that heat with electricity to rise another 3% this winter. - The EIA expects residential propane prices in Delmarva’s region to average $3.19 per gallon this winter. - That propane price is about 1% lower than last winter. - The EIA expects spending by propane-heated households in the South to stay about the same as last year. - PepUp is encouraging heating oil customers in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia to review their options before the coldest months arrive.

The details: - Troy Harrison, PepUp’s senior pricing analyst, has spent 34 years with the company and oversees its wholesale accounts. - Harrison said PepUp offers price protection for all customers. - Harrison said the current price cap for heating oil is still expected to save customers money as prices rise this winter. - Harrison said PepUp’s propane rate is currently lower than the heating oil cap for some customers. - NOAA expects a strong El Niño pattern this winter. - NOAA’s forecast could bring larger temperature swings than the EIA’s assumptions. - Those swings could further increase heating costs. - PepUp heating oil customers can ask about converting their systems to propane. - A PepUp energy specialist can explain conversion costs, credits for unused heating oil and expected winter bills. - Customers can call 800-638-7802 or visit PepUp’s propane and oil-delivery page to start the conversation.

Between the lines: - The pricing outlook reinforces a simple split: heating oil faces inflationary pressure, while propane looks comparatively stable. - PepUp is using the forecast to push customers toward price protection and, for some households, a fuel switch. - The El Niño warning adds uncertainty that could widen the financial impact if winter turns colder or more volatile than expected.

What's next: - PepUp is likely to see more customers comparing capped pricing against conversion costs as winter approaches. - Delmarva households that use heating oil will be watching supply conditions and temperatures closely. - Propane customers may face less volatility, but weather swings could still move bills higher than forecast.

The bottom line: - Heating oil users on Delmarva are heading into winter with more cost risk than propane customers, and PepUp wants households to act before the coldest months hit.